The official Presidential campaign has officially begun now that the Political conventions have started. The next several weeks will be an intense political period as Republican President Donald J Trump and Former Vice President, Democrat Joe Biden make their cases to voters through speeches, advertisements, voter outreach, and debates.
Gallup released new findings Monday that show that Democrats have a lot to worry about, far more so than any community organizer would let you believe was true.
“The Democratic advantage over the Republican Party, which was an unusually large 11-percentage-points in June, is now six points,” Gallup said. The results are based on monthly averages of Gallup’s U.S. polling in 2020, including multiple surveys in January, February, March, April and June.
The Democrats have been convinced from the day Trump was elected that he was unpopular and that a “blue Democrat wave” of enthusiasm would overwhelm Republicans, and that almost anyone could beat Trump.
President Trump has gained 5 points since June, according to Gallup. No one can accuse Gallup of being “right wing”, so there it is.
Yet, the Democrats are very confident.
According to that new Gallup poll that may have been overly confident.
Based on data there has been a drastic and recent change in people who identify as Democrat party, they were 50% +/- 1 or 2% for 28 YEARS.
See:
Party Affiliation in the Final Month Before Prior Presidential Elections Based on national adults:
| Democrat/ Lean Democratic | Republican/ Lean Republican | Democratic advantage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | pct. pts. | |
| Oct-Nov 2016 | 45 | 42 | +3 |
| Oct-Nov 2012 | 49 | 42 | +7 |
| October 2008 | 50 | 42 | +8 |
| October 2004 | 48 | 46 | +2 |
| October 2000 | 51 | 40 | +11 |
| October 1996 | 52 | 41 | +11 |
| October 1992 | 51 | 41 | +10 |
For 28 Years. Wow. That was quite a run. Apparently Democrats are not happy.
It could be because they do not relate to the party platform:
Voters don’t seem to support anything on the Democrat platform:
Think about this 45%, the recent number is 3% below the previous low which is solidly and statistically way out of bounds.
See how steady the Republican numbers are? They have stayed pretty much steady at 42%.
These numbers are shocking because “normal” participation numbers for Democrats is 50%. So 45% – is uncomforatably low.
Especially when the Democrats were quite confident that they would be a massive majority by this point in Trump’s Presidency that they . would just surf right into victory with ease.
According to Gallup, there was an increase in party identifications in May and June of 2020, “Since June, the percentage of Americans who identify as Democrats or say they are independents who lean to the Democratic Party has fallen two points, from 50% to 48%. Meanwhile, Republican Party identification and leaning is up three points, from 39% to 42%.”
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