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Gallup Numbers Show Blue Wave may not Carry the Democrats to Victory in November, Historic Low Numbers

Kari Donovan by Kari Donovan
August 25, 2020
in Politics
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The official Presidential campaign has officially begun now that the Political conventions have started. The next several weeks will be an intense political period as Republican President Donald J Trump and Former Vice President, Democrat Joe Biden make their cases to voters through speeches, advertisements, voter outreach, and debates.

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Gallup released new findings Monday that show that Democrats have a lot to worry about, far more so than any community organizer would let you believe was true.

“The Democratic advantage over the Republican Party, which was an unusually large 11-percentage-points in June, is now six points,” Gallup said. The results are based on monthly averages of Gallup’s U.S. polling in 2020, including multiple surveys in January, February, March, April and June.

The Democrats have been convinced from the day Trump was elected that he was unpopular and that a “blue Democrat wave” of enthusiasm would overwhelm Republicans, and that almost anyone could beat Trump.

President Trump has gained 5 points since June, according to Gallup. No one can accuse Gallup of being “right wing”, so there it is.

Yet, the Democrats are very confident.

Damn!!!! The #BlueWave is coming and no amount of hate can stop us!! #StrongerTogether#VoteBlueLikeYourLifeDependsOnIt #VoteBidenHarris2020 #FAM46 pic.twitter.com/YKb6QKrCYr

— 🏳️‍🌈❄️💙 🌊 I despise 45* POS POTUS🍑🤡 (@TikTokTrump_) August 25, 2020

According to that new Gallup poll that may have been overly confident.

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Based on data there has been a drastic and recent change in people who identify as Democrat party, they were 50% +/- 1 or 2% for 28 YEARS.

See:

Party Affiliation in the Final Month Before Prior Presidential Elections Based on national adults:

Democrat/
Lean Democratic
Republican/
Lean Republican
Democratic
advantage
%%pct. pts.
Oct-Nov 20164542+3
Oct-Nov 20124942+7
October 20085042+8
October 20044846+2
October 20005140+11
October 19965241+11
October 19925141+10

For 28 Years. Wow. That was quite a run. Apparently Democrats are not happy.

GALLUP POLL: 52% of Democrats/leaners wish someone else were their nominee

— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) August 16, 2020

It could be because they do not relate to the party platform:

Wake up call for anti-cop progressives and media allies who want to defund Police. Gallup poll shows 87% of Americans – including 81% of African-Americans – want Police numbers kept at same numbers as before. Thank God for common sense of American people!

— Rep. Pete King (@RepPeteKing) August 6, 2020

Voters don’t seem to support anything on the Democrat platform:

Gallup Poll: Americans Once Again Rank ‘Climate Change’ Dead Last As Least Important ‘Problem’ at 1% https://t.co/RoXqFX7MpF

— Marc Morano (@ClimateDepot) August 7, 2020

Think about this 45%, the recent number is 3% below the previous low which is solidly and statistically way out of bounds.
See how steady the Republican numbers are?  They have stayed pretty much steady at 42%.

These numbers are shocking because  “normal” participation numbers for Democrats is 50%.  So 45% – is uncomforatably low.

Especially when the Democrats were quite confident that they would be a massive majority by this point in Trump’s Presidency that they . would just surf right into victory with ease.

According to Gallup, there was an increase in party identifications in May and June of 2020, “Since June, the percentage of Americans who identify as Democrats or say they are independents who lean to the Democratic Party has fallen two points, from 50% to 48%. Meanwhile, Republican Party identification and leaning is up three points, from 39% to 42%.”

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